63
Total
29
Confirmed
13
Refuted
1
Partial
9
Expired
10
Open
13
Waiting
1
Untested
Calibration1.00 = perfect
Prediction Chains (7)
PRIMARY The Isfahan Chain
PRIMARY Summit Pivot
Houthi Counter-Blockade
Chinese Oil Workaround
Lebanon Ceasefire
Active Predictions (10)
P036 IAEA does not access Isfahan enrichment facility during conflict or within 30 days of cessation 0.90P053decision Iran announces nuclear escalation - enrichment to 90% or formal NPT withdrawal - within 30 days of blockade (by May 13) 0.55P061event Secondary sanctions cascade adds further China-linked entities by May 25 0.75P064event Mojtaba Khamenei does not make verifiable public appearance by May 25 0.80P066event Trump maintains 'hostilities have terminated' framing through May 31 (CONDITIONAL FLIPPED May 4: significant IRGC kinetic against US forces now occurred via cruise missiles on US Navy escorts and US-sunk Iranian boats; prediction now tests rhetorical durability of the framing despite the kinetic event) 0.65P068decision Trump-Xi summit publicly takes place by May 31 0.40P070event Iran does not offer enrichment cessation or significant nuclear-program downgrade in any proposal by Jun 1 0.90P072event China spends an additional rung beyond the May 2 blocking statute (rare-earth export controls, AFSL designation of named US officials, or CIPS-yuan settlement expansion onto Iran trade) by Jun 15 0.60P073event Iran's kinetic activity stays inside the May 4 envelope through May 25 - no strike on Bahrain, Saudi, Qatar, or Kuwait territory; no strike on US military bases; no Western/Indian/American-flagged vessel hit producing Western or American casualties 0.65P076decision Iran expands beyond the May 4 envelope by May 25 - any of: (a) strike on Bahrain, Saudi, Qatar, or Kuwait territory; (b) strike on US military base; (c) hit on Western/Indian/American-flagged vessel producing Western/American casualties 0.30
Conditional (13)
P054event US conducts ground operation at Isfahan within 30 days of Iranian nuclear escalation IF P053 →CONDITIONALP055event Trump declares victory and announces troop drawdown within 30 days of successful Isfahan operation IF P054 →CONDITIONALP071event If Trump-Xi summit takes place, Treasury issues no new OFAC designations against Chinese entities for 14 days post-summit conclusion IF P068 →CONDITIONALP074event No new US force deployment order to CENTCOM (additional CSG, MEU, named brigade combat team, bomber squadron rotation, or fighter squadron) is publicly announced through May 25 IF P073 →CONDITIONALP075event US continues escort operations at current cadence without ground strikes or named airstrikes on Iranian territory through May 25 IF P073 →CONDITIONALP077event US conducts kinetic strikes on Iranian territory (launch sites, IRGC bases, military infrastructure) within 14 days of P076 confirmation IF P076 →CONDITIONALP078event No Gulf state (UAE, Bahrain, Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait) publicly distances from US Iran posture or requests reduced US presence within 14 days of P076 confirmation; any public reaction stays in the indirect register (calls for negotiations, de-escalation, dialogue) IF P076 →CONDITIONALP079event Trump publicly declares freedom-of-navigation success or claims Project Freedom achieved its objective by May 31 IF P073 →CONDITIONALP080event Israeli daily death toll in Lebanon exceeds the May 2 high-water mark of 41 dead at least once between May 5 and May 31 IF P073 →CONDITIONALP081event US publicly announces additional CENTCOM force deployment order (CSG, MEU, brigade, bomber, or fighter squadron) within 14 days of P076 confirmation IF P076 →CONDITIONALP082event Israeli daily death toll in Lebanon exceeds 41 within 14 days of P076 confirmation IF P076 →CONDITIONALP083event Trump-Xi summit publicly slips, postpones, or is cancelled with explicit Iran reference within 14 days of P076 confirmation IF P076 →CONDITIONALP084event Pacific Fleet CSG (Vinson, Lincoln, GW, or current Pacific rotation) is NOT redirected toward CENTCOM within 14 days of P076 confirmation IF P076 →CONDITIONAL
Confirmed (29)
P002 Oil exceeds $100 within 10 days of Hormuz closure CONFIRMEDP003 New Supreme Leader named by 15 Mar CONFIRMEDP004 No ground forces on Iranian soil 14 days CONFIRMEDP006 Israel launches significant Lebanon operation by 10 Mar CONFIRMEDP009 Mojtaba named Supreme Leader during 3-8 Mar session CONFIRMEDP010 Houthis NOT attack before 12 Mar CONFIRMEDP012 Oil stays above $95 through 20 Mar CONFIRMEDP013 Mojtaba public address within 5 days CONFIRMEDP014 Houthis NOT attack before 20 Mar CONFIRMEDP015 No ceasefire talks before 22 Mar CONFIRMEDP019 US KIA below 25 by 25 Mar CONFIRMEDP022 Additional FPV drone attack in Iraq by 25 Mar CONFIRMEDP025 USS Boxer NOT arrive before combat ops cease CONFIRMEDP027 Oil above $105 through 1 Apr CONFIRMEDP028 IAEA Natanz statement within 5 days CONFIRMEDP030 Iran fires another IRBM (1,500+ km) within 7 days CONFIRMEDP033 Iran successfully penetrates Israeli missile defense again (direct hit) by 28 Mar CONFIRMEDP035 Trump posts claiming ultimatum succeeded, regardless of Hormuz status, by 26 Mar CONFIRMEDP042 Israel conducts strikes during or within 48hrs after any US-Iran ceasefire/pause declaration CONFIRMEDP045 Israel strikes additional Iranian energy/industrial infrastructure by 5 Apr CONFIRMEDP047 Trump does NOT strike Iranian power generation facilities before 8 PM ET April 6 CONFIRMEDP048 Israel conducts significant strike within 48hrs of next Trump diplomatic statement/deadline extension CONFIRMEDP050decision China publicly objects to or takes concrete action against Hormuz blockade within 7 days (by Apr 20) CONFIRMEDP051event China maintains Iranian oil imports through indirect channels (ship-to-ship transfers, third-country transshipment) despite the blockade within 21 days (by May 4) IF P050 →CONFIRMEDP056event US targets Chinese-Iranian oil workarounds with secondary sanctions or interdiction within 60 days of blockade (by Jun 12) IF P051 →CONFIRMEDP058decision Hezbollah fires on Israeli forces or positions during the 10-day Lebanon ceasefire (by Apr 26) CONFIRMEDP059event Israel conducts significant military escalation in Lebanon within 48 hours of Hezbollah firing, citing self-defence IF P058 →CONFIRMEDP062event No additional major US combat unit deploys to CENTCOM by May 9 beyond units already in transit CONFIRMEDP065event Following the IRGC kinetic escalation of May 4 (cruise missiles at US Navy + UAE attack), Israel or the US conducts calibrated retaliatory escalation framed as self-defence within 14 days (by May 18) CONFIRMED
Refuted (13)
P001 Houthis attack US/commercial vessel by 7 Mar REFUTEDP008 Missile rate below 20/day by 10 Mar REFUTEDP011 Oil stays below $95 through 12 Mar REFUTEDP018 Houthis first kinetic action by 25 Mar REFUTEDP021 Oil above $105 through 25 Mar REFUTEDP023 No direct Iran strike on Israel Day 18-25 REFUTEDP032 Houthis conduct NO kinetic military action for entire duration of conflict REFUTEDP034 Non-Chinese commercial shipping does NOT resume Hormuz transit before 15 Apr REFUTEDP040 Houthi activation limited - fewer than 5 kinetic strikes total by 15 Apr REFUTEDP041 Oil stays above $100/barrel (Brent) through 15 Apr REFUTEDP043 Pakistan-mediated talks do NOT produce a formal ceasefire by 15 Apr REFUTEDP046 Kurdish armed opposition (CPFIK) claims attacks in at least 3 Iranian provinces by 15 Apr REFUTEDP052event Apr 7 ceasefire formally collapses (one side explicitly declares it over or resumes major strikes) by Apr 21 REFUTED
Partial (1)
Expired (9)
P005 GCC state requests US force reduction by 12 Mar EXPIREDP007 China issues ceasefire proposal by 12 Mar EXPIREDP017 European NATO ceasefire call by 25 Mar EXPIREDP020 Qatar demands compensation / reassesses basing within 10 days EXPIREDP026 Kuwait/Qatar demands cessation of US ops by 1 Apr EXPIREDP029 US/coalition Kharg Island operation by 5 Apr EXPIREDP031 Gulf state requests US cease using territory by 1 Apr EXPIREDP044 Prince Sultan Air Base attacked again by Iran (missile or drone) by 10 Apr EXPIREDP049decision Iran directs Houthi escalation at Bab al-Mandeb - shipping interdiction or toll system - within 14 days of blockade (by Apr 27) EXPIRED