P0882026-06-15CONDITIONALevent
Israel does not withdraw from its southern Lebanon positions within 45 days of signing
Prediction Chain
Reasoning
Katz said operations "continue for the time being"; Israel is a non-signatory written into the deal's Lebanon terms; the sabotage/hold pattern holds; the proxy axis has no enforcement mechanism (R008). Trump cannot leash the spoiler he wrote in. Against: a token pullback under direct Trump pressure, as on the April Lebanon truce.
Log
Related Predictions
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