P0012026-03-02REFUTED
Houthis attack US/commercial vessel by 7 Mar
Reasoning
Expected Houthi escalation based on Red Sea campaign precedent and assumed Iranian leverage over Houthi decision-making.
Resolution
Houthis remained restrained with political solidarity only. No kinetic action.
Miss Analysis
Highest-confidence miss of the project. Overestimated Houthi willingness to escalate and Iranian leverage over Houthi decision-making.
Log
2026-03-05P010 created as partial correction - flipped to predicting Houthi inaction through 12 Mar.
2026-03-22P032 created as full correction (0.80 no Houthi action ever) - itself later refuted, completing the whiplash pattern.
Related Predictions
P002Oil exceeds $100 within 10 days of Hormuz closureCONFIRMEDP003New Supreme Leader named by 15 MarCONFIRMEDP004No ground forces on Iranian soil 14 daysCONFIRMEDP005GCC state requests US force reduction by 12 MarEXPIREDP006Israel launches significant Lebanon operation by 10 MarCONFIRMEDP007China issues ceasefire proposal by 12 MarEXPIREDP010Houthis NOT attack before 12 MarCONFIRMEDP014Houthis NOT attack before 20 MarCONFIRMED