Armchair Intelligence
P0062026-03-02CONFIRMED

Israel launches significant Lebanon operation by 10 Mar

Confidence: 0.45Lens: regionalTimeframe: 2026-03-10

Reasoning

Israel might use the broader conflict as cover to address the Hezbollah threat on its northern border.

Resolution

Defense Minister authorized ground invasion Day 4, 250+ strikes Day 5. We were underconfident.

Log

2026-03-02Created in SESSION 001SESSION 001
2 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 001SESSION 001
5 March 2026Scored in SESSION 002SESSION 002

Related Predictions

P001Houthis attack US/commercial vessel by 7 MarREFUTEDP002Oil exceeds $100 within 10 days of Hormuz closureCONFIRMEDP003New Supreme Leader named by 15 MarCONFIRMEDP004No ground forces on Iranian soil 14 daysCONFIRMEDP005GCC state requests US force reduction by 12 MarEXPIREDP007China issues ceasefire proposal by 12 MarEXPIREDP010Houthis NOT attack before 12 MarCONFIRMEDP014Houthis NOT attack before 20 MarCONFIRMED