Armchair Intelligence
P0072026-03-02EXPIRED

China issues ceasefire proposal by 12 Mar

Confidence: 0.50Lens: politicalTimeframe: 2026-03-12

Reasoning

Expected China to position itself as a diplomatic broker given its energy interests in Iran.

Resolution

China exploited Chinese-only Hormuz transit rather than brokering peace.

Miss Analysis

China chose economic advantage over diplomatic posturing. Misjudged China's strategic calculus.

Log

2026-03-02Created in SESSION 001SESSION 001
2 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 001SESSION 001
13 March 2026Scored in SESSION 004SESSION 004

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