A structured analytical exercise tracking the 2026 Iran war through prediction and scored accountability. Maintained by The Human and a large language model.
Do not use this for anything serious. This is an experimental analytical exercise conducted by someone with no military, intelligence, or international relations credentials, assisted by a language model that is confidently wrong about things on a regular basis. If you are a policymaker, journalist, or anyone whose decisions affect real people's lives: close this tab immediately. This project exists for unserious people who want to watch two amateurs keep score while the world burns.
Predictions are tracked with explicit confidence levels and scored against what actually happens, because if you're going to be wrong in public, you might as well be methodical about it.
The nuclear rubicon is crossed: Natanz struck, IDF denies involvement. Iran fires 2 IRBMs at Diego Garcia (4,000km range, both miss). A-10s and Apaches flying freely over Iran — air defense has collapsed. Kharg Island seizure planning reported. New predictions: P028-P031. Calibration assessment: 59% hit rate with systematic bias toward overestimating diplomatic speed.
The Natanz strike means destroying enrichment capability is now a war objective, not a bargaining chip. This eliminates leverage for negotiation and increases Iran's incentive to reconstitute. Iran's Diego Garcia shots reveal 4,000+ km range that Western intelligence either didn't know about or chose not to publicize — putting Southern Europe, Central Asia, and the Indian subcontinent within theoretical reach.
A-10s and Apaches over Iran is the clearest signal that organized air defense has collapsed — these are platforms you fly when the threat is permissive. The Gulf is fracturing further with UAE detentions drawing Iranian threats. The Kharg Island planning, if real, would be the first territorial seizure of the war.
17 resolved: 10 confirmed, 4 refuted, 1 partial, 2 expired. Systematic bias: we overestimate the speed of diplomatic and political responses. Most misses involve predicting actors would act faster than they did. Predictions at 0.50-0.60 are where accuracy drops. P001 (Houthi attack at 0.85) was our worst miss.
Trump says "winding down" while deploying USS Boxer with Marines and requesting $200B. Iran hits Mina Al-Ahmadi for second straight day. First casualty figures: 1,444 killed (204 children). Houthi rhetoric shifts to "considering naval blockade." P014, P015 confirmed. P023 refuted (Haifa refinery struck).
P023: Iran struck Haifa refinery Day 19. We underestimated tit-for-tat willingness after South Pars. Political necessity overrode capability constraints.
The energy war opened. Israel unilaterally struck South Pars (80% of Iran's domestic gas). Iran destroyed Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG — 17% of global supply, 3-5 year repair, $20B/yr revenue lost. Netanyahu confirms Israel "acted alone." Oil spikes to $110. Iran: "zero restraint" if energy facilities hit again. P012 confirmed.
Two weeks: missiles down 90%, navy gutted, air superiority unchallenged. But Hormuz is still closed, oil above $100, 14 countries involved. KC-135 crash kills 6 aircrew. Bahrain airport struck. FPV drones on US bases in Iraq. P004, P010, P013 confirmed. P008 refuted (timing too aggressive).
P008: rate hit ~25/day by Day 14 — close to threshold but not by Day 10 deadline. Directionally correct, too aggressive on timing.
Mojtaba Khamenei elected Supreme Leader in 8 days — faster than expected. IRGC, Basij, Jalili pledge allegiance. Lacks religious credentials. Oil spikes $119.50, settles $103. P001 refuted at 0.85 (Houthi miss). P011 refuted — contradicted our own P002. Self-flagged as analytical failure.
P001 at 0.85 was our worst miss — overestimated Houthi willingness. P011 directly contradicted P002 (one said >$100, other said <$95). Sloppy analytical discipline. Noted for calibration.
IRIS Dena torpedoed off Sri Lanka — first sub kill since Falklands. Hormuz becomes Chinese-only corridor. Iran's 500+ missiles in 6 days is unsustainable. Houthis are the dog that didn't bark. P006 confirmed (Israel Lebanon ops, at 0.45 — we were underconfident).
P006 confirmed at 0.45 — we underestimated Israeli escalation speed. When a new front opens, Israeli doctrine is to hit hard and fast.
War begins Feb 28. Khamenei killed in opening hours — one day after Oman announced nuclear breakthrough. Iran fires 350+ missiles, 800+ drones on Day 1. Six US killed. Hormuz closed. Hezbollah enters. No theory of victory articulated. 7 initial predictions (P001-P007).