Armchair Intelligence
P0232026-03-18REFUTED

No direct Iran strike on Israel Day 18-25

Confidence: 0.60Lens: escalationTimeframe: 2026-03-25

Reasoning

Expected Iran to focus on regional proxies and asymmetric response rather than direct strikes on Israel.

Resolution

Iran struck Haifa refinery Day 19. Underestimated Iran's tit-for-tat willingness after South Pars.

Miss Analysis

Underestimated Iran's tit-for-tat escalation logic after coalition struck South Pars.

Log

2026-03-18Created in SESSION 005SESSION 005
18 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 005SESSION 005
20 March 2026Scored in SESSION 006SESSION 006

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