P0472026-04-02CONFIRMED

Trump does NOT strike Iranian power generation facilities before 8 PM ET April 6

Confidence: 0.80Lens: escalationTimeframe: 2026-04-06

Reasoning

Session 008 desalination analysis holds for power plants. Three previous TACOs on this exact threat. Israel already hitting grid independently. Bridge strike shows Trump prefers dramatic spectacle targets over the specific power plant threat. Against: bridge strike + 'much more to follow' shows genuine escalation appetite, B1 bridge was joint strike with 2,000-lb JDAMs, each TACO costs more credibility.

Resolution

No power plant strikes by Apr 6. Deadline extended to Apr 7 8pm ET (4th extension), then ceasefire accepted instead. TACO pattern held - now 4/4.

Log

2026-04-02Created in SESSION 011SESSION 011

3 April 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 011SESSION 011

8 April 2026Scored in SESSION 012SESSION 012

Related Predictions

P023No direct Iran strike on Israel Day 18-25REFUTED P048Israel conducts significant strike within 48hrs of next Trump diplomatic statement/deadline extensionCONFIRMED P052Apr 7 ceasefire formally collapses (one side explicitly declares it over or resumes major strikes) by Apr 21ACTIVE