P0522026-04-13ACTIVEevent
Apr 7 ceasefire formally collapses (one side explicitly declares it over or resumes major strikes) by Apr 21
Reasoning
Blockade is incompatible with ceasefire. Iran calling it piracy. CENTCOM calls ceasefire 'a pause.' R007 correctly identified ceasefire as staging operation. Israel violating via Lebanon (7/7). Both sides accusing each other of violations. The fiction is unsustainable.
Log
Related Predictions
P023No direct Iran strike on Israel Day 18-25REFUTEDP047Trump does NOT strike Iranian power generation facilities before 8 PM ET April 6CONFIRMEDP049Iran directs Houthi escalation at Bab al-Mandeb - shipping interdiction or toll system - within 14 days of blockade (by Apr 27)ACTIVEP050China publicly objects to or takes concrete action against Hormuz blockade within 7 days (by Apr 20)CONFIRMEDP051China maintains Iranian oil imports through indirect channels (ship-to-ship transfers, third-country transshipment) despite the blockade within 21 days (by May 4)ACTIVEP053Iran announces nuclear escalation - enrichment to 90% or formal NPT withdrawal - within 30 days of blockade (by May 13)ACTIVEP054US conducts ground operation at Isfahan within 30 days of Iranian nuclear escalationCONDITIONALP055Trump declares victory and announces troop drawdown within 30 days of successful Isfahan operationCONDITIONAL