P0512026-04-13CONFIRMEDevent

China maintains Iranian oil imports through indirect channels (ship-to-ship transfers, third-country transshipment) despite the blockade within 21 days (by May 4)

Confidence: 0.65Lens: economicTimeframe: 2026-05-04

Prediction Chain

Chinese Oil Workaround

China publicly objects to or takes concrete action against Hormuz blockade within 7 days (by Apr 20)

P056eventconfirmed0.70

US targets Chinese-Iranian oil workarounds with secondary sanctions or interdiction within 60 days of blockade (by Jun 12)

Reasoning

Neither Beijing nor Washington wants a naval confrontation over Iranian crude. China will find workarounds - ship-to-ship transfers in open water, third-country transshipment via Oman or UAE. The US will tolerate them quietly short-term. Direct challenge unlikely, indirect circumvention near-certain.

Resolution

Shadow-fleet operations visible from Day 1 of blockade - Rich Starry transit, ship-to-ship transfers in open water, Hengli refinery purchases. Treasury's April 24 sanction of Hengli plus 19 shadow-fleet vessels plus 40 shipping firms is itself evidence that workarounds were operational at scale.

Log

2026-04-13Created in SESSION 013SESSION 013

13 April 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 013SESSION 013

25 April 2026Scored in SESSION 015SESSION 015

Related Predictions

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