P0272026-03-20CONFIRMED
Oil above $105 through 1 Apr
Reasoning
Sustained Hormuz closure and supply constraints should keep prices elevated through early April.
Resolution
Oil at $113 on Mar 29, dipped to $104.86 intraday Apr 1 during Trump speech uncertainty, rebounded to $111.69 by Apr 2. Transient dip driven by speech-day volatility, not structural price movement.
Log
Related Predictions
P002Oil exceeds $100 within 10 days of Hormuz closureCONFIRMEDP011Oil stays below $95 through 12 MarREFUTEDP012Oil stays above $95 through 20 MarCONFIRMEDP021Oil above $105 through 25 MarREFUTEDP024Houthis conduct first kinetic strike by 28 MarWITHDRAWNP025USS Boxer NOT arrive before combat ops ceaseCONFIRMEDP026Kuwait/Qatar demands cessation of US ops by 1 AprEXPIREDP034Non-Chinese commercial shipping does NOT resume Hormuz transit before 15 AprREFUTED