P0262026-03-20EXPIRED

Kuwait/Qatar demands cessation of US ops by 1 Apr

Confidence: 0.40Lens: politicalTimeframe: 2026-04-01

Reasoning

Gulf states face increasing domestic and regional pressure as conflict extends; formal demand is a possibility.

Resolution

No public demand from either country. Gulf states continue absorbing strikes without publicly breaking with the US. 0/3 on Gulf political break predictions (P005, P026, P031).

Miss Analysis

Part of systematic Gulf political break bias - we overestimate speed of public rupture.

Log

2026-03-20Created in SESSION 006SESSION 006

20 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 006SESSION 006

3 April 2026Scored in SESSION 011SESSION 011

Related Predictions

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