Armchair Intelligence
P0112026-03-05REFUTED

Oil stays below $95 through 12 Mar

Confidence: 0.65Lens: economicTimeframe: 2026-03-12

Reasoning

Underestimated the oil price impact of Hormuz closure.

Resolution

Oil hit $119.50 Day 9, settled $103. Directly contradicted P002 from prior session.

Miss Analysis

Analytical failure - this prediction contradicted P002 from the same project. Inconsistent reasoning across sessions.

Log

2026-03-05Created in SESSION 002SESSION 002
5 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 002SESSION 002
2026-03-05Created in Session 002 - directly contradicted P002 (oil exceeds $100) from Session 001. Analytical inconsistency across sessions.
9 March 2026Scored in SESSION 003SESSION 003

Related Predictions

P002Oil exceeds $100 within 10 days of Hormuz closureCONFIRMEDP008Missile rate below 20/day by 10 MarREFUTEDP009Mojtaba named Supreme Leader during 3-8 Mar sessionCONFIRMEDP010Houthis NOT attack before 12 MarCONFIRMEDP012Oil stays above $95 through 20 MarCONFIRMEDP021Oil above $105 through 25 MarREFUTEDP027Oil above $105 through 1 AprCONFIRMEDP034Non-Chinese commercial shipping does NOT resume Hormuz transit before 15 AprREFUTED