Armchair Intelligence
P0122026-03-09CONFIRMED

Oil stays above $95 through 20 Mar

Confidence: 0.80Lens: economicTimeframe: 2026-03-20

Reasoning

With Hormuz still closed and no resolution in sight, supply constraints would keep prices elevated.

Resolution

Never dropped below $103. Oil at $110+ by Day 18.

Log

2026-03-09Created in SESSION 003SESSION 003
9 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 003SESSION 003
18 March 2026Scored in SESSION 005SESSION 005

Related Predictions

P002Oil exceeds $100 within 10 days of Hormuz closureCONFIRMEDP011Oil stays below $95 through 12 MarREFUTEDP013Mojtaba public address within 5 daysCONFIRMEDP014Houthis NOT attack before 20 MarCONFIRMEDP015No ceasefire talks before 22 MarCONFIRMEDP021Oil above $105 through 25 MarREFUTEDP027Oil above $105 through 1 AprCONFIRMEDP034Non-Chinese commercial shipping does NOT resume Hormuz transit before 15 AprREFUTED