Armchair Intelligence
P0212026-03-18REFUTED

Oil above $105 through 25 Mar

Confidence: 0.80Lens: economicTimeframe: 2026-03-25

Reasoning

Supply fundamentals with Hormuz closed supported sustained high prices.

Resolution

Brent crashed ~11% to ~$100 on Mar 23 when Trump announced 5-day pause on power plant strikes. Market traded the headline.

Miss Analysis

Oil prices in a war zone respond to Trump's words as much as physical supply dynamics. Fundamentals supported $105+ but headline risk overwhelmed.

Log

2026-03-18Created in SESSION 005SESSION 005
18 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 005SESSION 005
25 March 2026Scored in SESSION 008SESSION 008

Related Predictions

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