P0242026-03-20WITHDRAWN
Houthis conduct first kinetic strike by 28 Mar
Reasoning
Continued expectation of eventual Houthi action despite prior misses.
Resolution
Withdrawn rather than waiting for the obvious refutation. Three Houthi attack predictions (P001, P018, P024) all wrong.
Miss Analysis
Persistent Houthi overestimation. Withdrawn to acknowledge the systematic analytical failure.
Log
2026-03-25Withdrawn in Session 008 before the obvious refutation. Third Houthi attack prediction (after P001, P018) to fail.SESSION 008
Related Predictions
P001Houthis attack US/commercial vessel by 7 MarREFUTEDP006Israel launches significant Lebanon operation by 10 MarCONFIRMEDP010Houthis NOT attack before 12 MarCONFIRMEDP014Houthis NOT attack before 20 MarCONFIRMEDP018Houthis first kinetic action by 25 MarREFUTEDP022Additional FPV drone attack in Iraq by 25 MarCONFIRMEDP025USS Boxer NOT arrive before combat ops ceaseCONFIRMEDP026Kuwait/Qatar demands cessation of US ops by 1 AprEXPIRED