Armchair Intelligence
P0182026-03-13REFUTED

Houthis first kinetic action by 25 Mar

Confidence: 0.55Lens: regionalTimeframe: 2026-03-25

Reasoning

Expected Houthis to eventually act given prolonged conflict, despite prior inaction.

Resolution

25 days of total inaction. Part of the broader Houthi prediction failure chain (P001, P018, P024).

Miss Analysis

Continued Houthi overestimation. Third prediction in the failure chain.

Log

2026-03-13Created in SESSION 004SESSION 004
13 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 004SESSION 004
25 March 2026Scored in SESSION 008SESSION 008

Related Predictions

P001Houthis attack US/commercial vessel by 7 MarREFUTEDP006Israel launches significant Lebanon operation by 10 MarCONFIRMEDP010Houthis NOT attack before 12 MarCONFIRMEDP014Houthis NOT attack before 20 MarCONFIRMEDP016Missile rate below 15/day by 20 MarPARTIALP017European NATO ceasefire call by 25 MarEXPIREDP019US KIA below 25 by 25 MarCONFIRMEDP022Additional FPV drone attack in Iraq by 25 MarCONFIRMED