P0412026-03-28REFUTED
Oil stays above $100/barrel (Brent) through 15 Apr
Reasoning
Hormuz closure tightening (even Chinese ships blocked), IEA 'largest supply disruption in history,' Iraq force majeure (70% export decline), no ceasefire imminent. $100 is a lower bar than P027's $105.
Resolution
Brent crashed to ~$95 on ceasefire announcement Apr 7 - biggest single-day drop since 1991. Didn't predict ceasefire (P043), so didn't predict oil crash. Futures recovered to ~$100.
Miss Analysis
Connected to P043 miss - failed to predict ceasefire, so failed to predict its market consequences.
Log
Related Predictions
P002Oil exceeds $100 within 10 days of Hormuz closureCONFIRMEDP011Oil stays below $95 through 12 MarREFUTEDP012Oil stays above $95 through 20 MarCONFIRMEDP021Oil above $105 through 25 MarREFUTEDP027Oil above $105 through 1 AprCONFIRMEDP034Non-Chinese commercial shipping does NOT resume Hormuz transit before 15 AprREFUTEDP040Houthi activation limited - fewer than 5 kinetic strikes total by 15 AprREFUTEDP042Israel conducts strikes during or within 48hrs after any US-Iran ceasefire/pause declarationCONFIRMED