P0432026-03-28REFUTED
Pakistan-mediated talks do NOT produce a formal ceasefire by 15 Apr
Reasoning
Iran rejected 15-point plan. Counter-demands incompatible. Trust deficit massive. Israel actively sabotaging. Pakistan bandwidth split. Leans into our bias correction: we overestimate diplomatic speed.
Resolution
Pakistan brokered 2-week ceasefire Apr 7 - 8 days before deadline. Munir called Trump directly. Biggest miss of the session: described ceasefire conditions in detail while predicting it wouldn't happen.
Miss Analysis
Internally contradictory analysis. Described all conditions for ceasefire while assigning 0.85 probability it wouldn't happen. Lesson: when conditions you describe are met, raise the probability.
Log
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