P0402026-03-28REFUTED
Houthi activation limited - fewer than 5 kinetic strikes total by 15 Apr
Reasoning
Beersheba missile was calibrated signal, not sustained campaign. Houthis degraded by Operation Rough Rider, have domestic problems, serve as Iranian negotiating lever rather than independent military front.
Resolution
At least 6 strikes by Apr 7: Mar 28 x2, Apr 1 (coordinated), Apr 2 (intercepted), Apr 5 (Ben Gurion airport), Apr 7 (coordinated three-axis). 4th wrong Houthi prediction.
Miss Analysis
Houthi prediction record remains dismal - wrong in both directions across 4 predictions.
Log
2026-03-28Created as a middle-ground position after the Houthi whiplash pattern: P001 (attack, 0.85) wrong, P032 (no action ever, 0.80) also wrong. Moderate confidence acknowledges terrible Houthi prediction record.
2026-03-29Houthi prediction moratorium declared in Session 010. P040 was the last Houthi prediction issued.
Related Predictions
P001Houthis attack US/commercial vessel by 7 MarREFUTEDP006Israel launches significant Lebanon operation by 10 MarCONFIRMEDP010Houthis NOT attack before 12 MarCONFIRMEDP014Houthis NOT attack before 20 MarCONFIRMEDP018Houthis first kinetic action by 25 MarREFUTEDP022Additional FPV drone attack in Iraq by 25 MarCONFIRMEDP024Houthis conduct first kinetic strike by 28 MarWITHDRAWNP041Oil stays above $100/barrel (Brent) through 15 AprREFUTED