P0422026-03-28CONFIRMED

Israel conducts strikes during or within 48hrs after any US-Iran ceasefire/pause declaration

Confidence: 0.75Lens: politicalTimeframe: Any ceasefire event

Reasoning

Observable pattern: Israel accelerating strikes 'in case ceasefire declared,' struck nuclear facilities during negotiations, killed Tangsiri during talks. R003 structural pattern: every diplomatic offramp destroyed.

Resolution

Israel struck three Tehran airports, railways, bridges, and Kharg Island on Apr 7 - same day as ceasefire announcement. Netanyahu carved Lebanon out of ceasefire entirely. Sabotage pattern confirmed 6/6+.

Log

2026-03-28Created in SESSION 009SESSION 009
28 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 009SESSION 009
8 April 2026Scored in SESSION 012SESSION 012

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