US targets Chinese-Iranian oil workarounds with secondary sanctions or interdiction within 60 days of blockade (by Jun 12)
Prediction Chain
Reasoning
The US financial toolkit makes this the obvious response to workarounds. Secondary sanctions threaten any entity facilitating transfers - Omani port operators, ship owners, insurers - with exclusion from the US financial system. Trump already telegraphed it: 'seek and interdict every vessel that has paid a toll to Iran.' Short-term tolerance buys goodwill with Beijing; long-term tolerance undermines the blockade. The tempo is uncertain, not the direction.
Resolution
Treasury OFAC sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery plus 19 shadow-fleet vessels plus 40 shipping firms on April 24. Press release titled 'Economic Fury Targets Global Network Fueling Iran's Oil Trade,' extending the Operation Epic Fury naming convention. P056 fired in 11 days against a 60-day window - cascade moving faster than predicted.