Armchair Intelligence
P0502026-04-13CONFIRMEDdecision

China publicly objects to or takes concrete action against Hormuz blockade within 7 days (by Apr 20)

Confidence: 0.65Lens: politicalTimeframe: 2026-04-20

Prediction Chain

Chinese Oil Workaround
P050decisionconfirmed0.65
China publicly objects to or takes concrete action against Hormuz blockade within 7 days (by Apr 20)
↓
P051event0.65
China maintains Iranian oil imports through indirect channels (ship-to-ship transfers, third-country transshipment) despite the blockade within 21 days (by May 4)
↓
P056eventconditional0.70
US targets Chinese-Iranian oil workarounds with secondary sanctions or interdiction within 60 days of blockade (by Jun 12)

Reasoning

Blockade directly threatens Chinese oil supply from Iran (1-1.5M bpd through IRGC corridor). China helped broker the ceasefire - blockade makes them look foolish. Minimum response: diplomatic objection. Question is whether performative or substantive.

Resolution

China's MFA called blockade 'dangerous and irresponsible' on Apr 14 - one day after implementation. Spokesman Guo Jiakun: 'China opposes illegal unilateral sanctions without UN Security Council authorisation.' Chinese-owned Rich Starry transited strait testing blockade boundaries. Minimum expected response, delivered immediately.

Log

2026-04-13Created in SESSION 013SESSION 013
13 April 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 013SESSION 013
18 April 2026Scored in SESSION 014SESSION 014

Related Predictions

P003New Supreme Leader named by 15 MarCONFIRMEDP005GCC state requests US force reduction by 12 MarEXPIREDP007China issues ceasefire proposal by 12 MarEXPIREDP009Mojtaba named Supreme Leader during 3-8 Mar sessionCONFIRMEDP013Mojtaba public address within 5 daysCONFIRMEDP015No ceasefire talks before 22 MarCONFIRMEDP017European NATO ceasefire call by 25 MarEXPIREDP020Qatar demands compensation / reassesses basing within 10 daysEXPIRED