P0532026-04-13EXPIREDdecision
Iran announces nuclear escalation - enrichment to 90% or formal NPT withdrawal - within 30 days of blockade (by May 13)
Prediction Chain
PRIMARY The Isfahan Chain
Reasoning
The pivot prediction. Blockade removed Hormuz leverage - nuclear is Iran's only remaining card that changes the board. NPT withdrawal legislation in parliament. 440kg of 60% uranium. Historical pattern: states under existential pressure nuclearize. But Iran might see the trap - nuclear announcement legitimizes the Isfahan raid.
Resolution
Deadline May 13 passed and Iran moved opposite - down-blend and freeze, not escalation. The Isfahan Chain breaks at step 4.
Log
Related Predictions
P028IAEA Natanz statement within 5 daysCONFIRMEDP036IAEA does not access Isfahan enrichment facility during conflict or within 30 days of cessationACTIVEP049Iran directs Houthi escalation at Bab al-Mandeb - shipping interdiction or toll system - within 14 days of blockade (by Apr 27)EXPIREDP050China publicly objects to or takes concrete action against Hormuz blockade within 7 days (by Apr 20)CONFIRMEDP051China maintains Iranian oil imports through indirect channels (ship-to-ship transfers, third-country transshipment) despite the blockade within 21 days (by May 4)CONFIRMEDP052Apr 7 ceasefire formally collapses (one side explicitly declares it over or resumes major strikes) by Apr 21REFUTEDP054US conducts ground operation at Isfahan within 30 days of Iranian nuclear escalationUNTESTEDP055Trump declares victory and announces troop drawdown within 30 days of successful Isfahan operationUNTESTED