P0362026-03-25ACTIVE
IAEA does not access Isfahan enrichment facility during conflict or within 30 days of cessation
Reasoning
Iran declared Isfahan in June 2025 but IAEA never inspected it. Iran's lesson is 'declared facilities get bombed' (Natanz). 8-month pre-war stall demonstrates willingness to delay indefinitely.
Log
2026-03-25First prediction after the new validation process - stress-tested with for/against analysis and human approval. Several candidate predictions rejected in the same session.
Related Predictions
P028IAEA Natanz statement within 5 daysCONFIRMEDP053Iran announces nuclear escalation - enrichment to 90% or formal NPT withdrawal - within 30 days of blockade (by May 13)EXPIREDP070Iran does not offer enrichment cessation or significant nuclear-program downgrade in any proposal by Jun 1PARTIALP087No IAEA inspector access to the Isfahan enrichment facility within 45 days of signingACTIVE