P0362026-03-25ACTIVE

IAEA does not access Isfahan enrichment facility during conflict or within 30 days of cessation

Confidence: 0.90Lens: nuclearTimeframe: 30 days post-conflict

Reasoning

Iran declared Isfahan in June 2025 but IAEA never inspected it. Iran's lesson is 'declared facilities get bombed' (Natanz). 8-month pre-war stall demonstrates willingness to delay indefinitely.

Log

2026-03-25Created in SESSION 008SESSION 008

25 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 008SESSION 008

2026-03-25First prediction after the new validation process - stress-tested with for/against analysis and human approval. Several candidate predictions rejected in the same session.

Related Predictions

P028IAEA Natanz statement within 5 daysCONFIRMED P053Iran announces nuclear escalation - enrichment to 90% or formal NPT withdrawal - within 30 days of blockade (by May 13)ACTIVE