P0872026-06-15CONDITIONALevent
No IAEA inspector access to the Isfahan enrichment facility within 45 days of signing
Prediction Chain
Reasoning
Down-blending HEU in IRGC-controlled tunnels requires the IRGC to open the gate - the R010 Lebanonization trigger. Extends P036. Against: front-loaded access is exactly the "verifiable step" the E3 conditioned sanctions relief on, and Iran has a cash incentive to show early compliance.
Log
Related Predictions
P028IAEA Natanz statement within 5 daysCONFIRMEDP036IAEA does not access Isfahan enrichment facility during conflict or within 30 days of cessationACTIVEP053Iran announces nuclear escalation - enrichment to 90% or formal NPT withdrawal - within 30 days of blockade (by May 13)EXPIREDP070Iran does not offer enrichment cessation or significant nuclear-program downgrade in any proposal by Jun 1PARTIALP085The US-Iran deal is formally signed by July 5ACTIVEP088Israel does not withdraw from its southern Lebanon positions within 45 days of signingCONDITIONAL