P0282026-03-21CONFIRMED
IAEA Natanz statement within 5 days
Reasoning
Natanz strike had direct nuclear implications; IAEA would be compelled to respond publicly.
Resolution
Grossi gave CBS interview addressing nuclear concerns. IAEA publicly flagged Isfahan mystery site. Multiple public statements.
Log
Related Predictions
P029US/coalition Kharg Island operation by 5 AprEXPIREDP030Iran fires another IRBM (1,500+ km) within 7 daysCONFIRMEDP031Gulf state requests US cease using territory by 1 AprEXPIREDP036IAEA does not access Isfahan enrichment facility during conflict or within 30 days of cessationACTIVEP053Iran announces nuclear escalation - enrichment to 90% or formal NPT withdrawal - within 30 days of blockade (by May 13)EXPIREDP070Iran does not offer enrichment cessation or significant nuclear-program downgrade in any proposal by Jun 1PARTIALP087No IAEA inspector access to the Isfahan enrichment facility within 45 days of signingACTIVE