Armchair Intelligence
P0302026-03-21CONFIRMED

Iran fires another IRBM (1,500+ km) within 7 days

Confidence: 0.55Lens: militaryTimeframe: 2026-03-28

Reasoning

Nuclear tit-for-tat logic after Natanz strike made another long-range Iranian missile launch near-certain.

Resolution

Confirmed same day (22 Mar). Iran fired heavy-warhead ballistic missiles at Dimona and Arad (~1,600km). We were underconfident at 0.55.

Log

2026-03-21Created in SESSION 007SESSION 007
21 March 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 007SESSION 007
22 March 2026Scored in FLASH UPDATEFLASH UPDATE

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