P0852026-06-15CONFIRMEDdecision

The US-Iran deal is formally signed by July 5

Confidence: 0.80Lens: politicalTimeframe: 2026-07-05

Prediction Chain

Reasoning

Trump and Pakistani PM Sharif announced the deal "complete" June 15; signing ceremony set June 19 in Switzerland; both sides have strong incentive (Iran economy/storage, Trump midterm clock); E3+Italy lined up to lift sanctions. Against: five TACO reneges (May 29 latest), competing versions unresolved, IRGC Apache spike six days pre-signing. | SCORED S020 CONFIRMED: the 14-point MoU was formally signed by Trump and Pezeshkian on June 17, before the July 5 deadline. The deal collapsed after signing (Switzerland round called off June 19; Trump declared it 'over' July 7), but the prediction was specifically about signature, which occurred. Root fires; children P087/P088 activate.

Resolution

CONFIRMED. The 14-point MoU was signed by Trump and Pezeshkian on June 17, ahead of the July 5 deadline. The deal collapsed after signing (Switzerland round called off June 19; declared 'over' July 7), but the prediction was about signature, which occurred. Root fires; P087 and P088 activate.

Log

1-15 June 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 019SESSION 019
2026-06-15Created in SESSION 019SESSION 019
9 July 2026Scored in SESSION 020SESSION 020

Related Predictions