Armchair Intelligence
P0852026-06-15ACTIVEdecision

The US-Iran deal is formally signed by July 5

Confidence: 0.80Lens: politicalTimeframe: 2026-07-05

Prediction Chain

P085decision0.80
The US-Iran deal is formally signed by July 5
P087eventconditional0.75
No IAEA inspector access to the Isfahan enrichment facility within 45 days of signing
P088eventconditional0.85
Israel does not withdraw from its southern Lebanon positions within 45 days of signing

Reasoning

Trump and Pakistani PM Sharif announced the deal "complete" June 15; signing ceremony set June 19 in Switzerland; both sides have strong incentive (Iran economy/storage, Trump midterm clock); E3+Italy lined up to lift sanctions. Against: five TACO reneges (May 29 latest), competing versions unresolved, IRGC Apache spike six days pre-signing.

Log

1-15 June 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 019SESSION 019
2026-06-15Created in SESSION 019SESSION 019

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