P0322026-03-22REFUTED
Houthis conduct NO kinetic military action for entire duration of conflict
Reasoning
22 days of total Houthi inaction despite rhetoric. Corrects our most persistent analytical blind spot (P001, P018, P024). Likely due to degraded capability from 2024-25 Red Sea campaign, lack of Iranian operational control, and Saudi deterrence.
Resolution
Houthi ballistic missile fired at Beersheba Mar 28 (Day 28). Intercepted by IDF, no casualties. First Houthi attack since Oct 2025 ceasefire. Houthis operate on Iranian strategic timing, not their own initiative.
Miss Analysis
Our correction was itself wrong. P001 said Houthis would attack (wrong), P032 said they never would (also wrong). Lesson: Houthi behavior is a function of Iranian negotiating posture.
Log
2026-03-22Created as a deliberate correction of persistent Houthi overestimation (P001 at 0.85, P018, P024). Swung to the opposite extreme.
2026-03-28Refuted by Houthi ballistic missile at Beersheba. Iran activated Houthis as negotiating leverage after rejecting the 15-point plan.
Related Predictions
P004No ground forces on Iranian soil 14 daysCONFIRMEDP008Missile rate below 20/day by 10 MarREFUTEDP016Missile rate below 15/day by 20 MarPARTIALP019US KIA below 25 by 25 MarCONFIRMEDP025USS Boxer NOT arrive before combat ops ceaseCONFIRMEDP029US/coalition Kharg Island operation by 5 AprEXPIREDP030Iran fires another IRBM (1,500+ km) within 7 daysCONFIRMEDP033Iran successfully penetrates Israeli missile defense again (direct hit) by 28 MarCONFIRMED