P0612026-04-25ACTIVEevent
Secondary sanctions cascade adds further China-linked entities by May 25
Reasoning
Treasury issued bank-warning Apr 29 over teapot refineries handling Iranian oil and Malaysian-blend imports - cascade extension by signaling rather than designation. China's first-ever blocking statute May 2 may slow but does not necessarily stop further OFAC action; the pattern of US response to Chinese retaliation has been more sanctions, not fewer. Pre-summit cascade extension is exactly what the calibrated-restraint architecture produces - signal not designation. Committed at S016 with confidence raised from 0.65 to 0.70 given Apr 29 bank-warning evidence.
Log
Related Predictions
P002Oil exceeds $100 within 10 days of Hormuz closureCONFIRMEDP011Oil stays below $95 through 12 MarREFUTEDP012Oil stays above $95 through 20 MarCONFIRMEDP021Oil above $105 through 25 MarREFUTEDP027Oil above $105 through 1 AprCONFIRMEDP034Non-Chinese commercial shipping does NOT resume Hormuz transit before 15 AprREFUTEDP041Oil stays above $100/barrel (Brent) through 15 AprREFUTEDP051China maintains Iranian oil imports through indirect channels (ship-to-ship transfers, third-country transshipment) despite the blockade within 21 days (by May 4)CONFIRMED