Armchair Intelligence
P0772026-05-05CONDITIONALevent

US conducts kinetic strikes on Iranian territory (launch sites, IRGC bases, military infrastructure) within 14 days of P076 confirmation

Confidence: 0.75Lens: militaryTimeframe: 14d-post-P076

Prediction Chain

P076decision0.30
Iran expands beyond the May 4 envelope by May 25 - any of: (a) strike on Bahrain, Saudi, Qatar, or Kuwait territory; (b) strike on US military base; (c) hit on Western/Indian/American-flagged vessel producing Western/American casualties
P077eventconditional0.75
US conducts kinetic strikes on Iranian territory (launch sites, IRGC bases, military infrastructure) within 14 days of P076 confirmation
P078eventconditional0.80
No Gulf state (UAE, Bahrain, Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait) publicly distances from US Iran posture or requests reduced US presence within 14 days of P076 confirmation; any public reaction stays in the indirect register (calls for negotiations, de-escalation, dialogue)
P081eventconditional0.65
US publicly announces additional CENTCOM force deployment order (CSG, MEU, brigade, bomber, or fighter squadron) within 14 days of P076 confirmation
P082eventconditional0.65
Israeli daily death toll in Lebanon exceeds 41 within 14 days of P076 confirmation
P083eventconditional0.55
Trump-Xi summit publicly slips, postpones, or is cancelled with explicit Iran reference within 14 days of P076 confirmation
P084eventconditional0.80
Pacific Fleet CSG (Vinson, Lincoln, GW, or current Pacific rotation) is NOT redirected toward CENTCOM within 14 days of P076 confirmation

Reasoning

Tests the simplest US move conditional on expansion: strike the launch sites Iran fired from. Three CSGs already provide saturated targeting capacity; the political weather post-expansion (especially with Western/American casualties or allied territory hit) gives Trump warrant for kinetic response from existing posture without requiring additional deployment.

Log

2026-05-05Created in SESSION 016SESSION 016
6 May 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 016SESSION 016

Related Predictions

P004No ground forces on Iranian soil 14 daysCONFIRMEDP008Missile rate below 20/day by 10 MarREFUTEDP016Missile rate below 15/day by 20 MarPARTIALP019US KIA below 25 by 25 MarCONFIRMEDP025USS Boxer NOT arrive before combat ops ceaseCONFIRMEDP029US/coalition Kharg Island operation by 5 AprEXPIREDP030Iran fires another IRBM (1,500+ km) within 7 daysCONFIRMEDP032Houthis conduct NO kinetic military action for entire duration of conflictREFUTED