Hezbollah fires on Israeli forces or positions during the 10-day Lebanon ceasefire (by Apr 26)
Prediction Chain
Reasoning
Israeli troops in southern Lebanon are an existential provocation for Hezbollah. Expanding patrols, pushing checkpoints - the presence itself is the trigger. Hezbollah is not a signatory. Against: ten days is short, Hezbollah leadership may calculate restraint serves Iran's diplomatic track, and firing hands Israel the self-defence clause. But Hezbollah is decentralised - restraint requires discipline across every position for ten days. One firefight is enough.
Resolution
Hezbollah and Israeli forces targeted each other throughout April 23 - 24, with Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon and Hezbollah fire on Israeli positions. Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad publicly framed the ceasefire as 'meaningless.' Decision-node prediction with 0.55 confidence reflected genuine uncertainty about Hezbollah's restraint capacity; the decentralised structure made restraint impossible to sustain across every position for ten days.