P0912026-07-09ACTIVEevent
The Strait of Hormuz stays functionally open to non-Iranian commercial traffic through Aug 15 despite episodic IRGC harassment
Reasoning
For: Iran cannot sustain closure against US degradation of its boats/radar/anti-ship (60+ IRGC boats struck July 7-9); the tanker hits were episodic pinpricks; the early-July glut proves traffic flows; the 2026 self-deterrence barriers (insurance, crews) cut both ways. Against: aggressive re-mining; a single large incident could freeze traffic via insurance/threat-level even without sustained closure (UK MTO already at 'severe').
Log
Related Predictions
P002Oil exceeds $100 within 10 days of Hormuz closureCONFIRMEDP011Oil stays below $95 through 12 MarREFUTEDP012Oil stays above $95 through 20 MarCONFIRMEDP021Oil above $105 through 25 MarREFUTEDP027Oil above $105 through 1 AprCONFIRMEDP034Non-Chinese commercial shipping does NOT resume Hormuz transit before 15 AprREFUTEDP041Oil stays above $100/barrel (Brent) through 15 AprREFUTEDP051China maintains Iranian oil imports through indirect channels (ship-to-ship transfers, third-country transshipment) despite the blockade within 21 days (by May 4)CONFIRMED