P0462026-03-29REFUTED
Kurdish armed opposition (CPFIK) claims attacks in at least 3 Iranian provinces by 15 Apr
Reasoning
PJAK entering via Zagros since Mar 2. PAK claimed attacks in Kermanshah and Isfahan in January. CIA arming Kurdish groups. US/Israel striking border forces to enable entry. Tracks whether the western front expands geographically - a key indicator for the Isfahan battlefield-shaping theory.
Resolution
PAK claimed attacks in 2 provinces (Kermanshah, Isfahan) but IRGC pre-emptive strikes on Kurdistan Region of Iraq prevented the cross-border offensive from materializing at scale. Threshold of 3 provinces not met.
Miss Analysis
Overestimated Kurdish operational capacity under Iranian counter-fire. IRGC was able to suppress the KRI staging areas even while under sustained air campaign.
Log
Related Predictions
P004No ground forces on Iranian soil 14 daysCONFIRMEDP008Missile rate below 20/day by 10 MarREFUTEDP016Missile rate below 15/day by 20 MarPARTIALP019US KIA below 25 by 25 MarCONFIRMEDP025USS Boxer NOT arrive before combat ops ceaseCONFIRMEDP029US/coalition Kharg Island operation by 5 AprEXPIREDP030Iran fires another IRBM (1,500+ km) within 7 daysCONFIRMEDP032Houthis conduct NO kinetic military action for entire duration of conflictREFUTED