P0902026-07-09ACTIVEevent
No US ground operation or sustained (>7 consecutive days) strike campaign on Iranian territory through Aug 15
Reasoning
For: symmetric rung-spending in the July 7-9 exchange (US 80 targets vs IRGC 85, mirroring the June 9 spike); oil at ~$76 not $115; US confined to naval/air standoff (no basing, no ground) - which also sidesteps the Saudi/Kuwait airspace denial; Trump kept the 'negotiations might continue' re-entry ramp; the two-track fiction has absorbed every strike since May. Against: Trump declared the MoU 'over' more definitively than prior TACO folds; IRGC keeps hitting ships; Israel could resume Iran strikes and drag the US in; the deal's death removes restraint scaffolding. Board-state read: this is punitive interdiction to force Iran back to the MoU, not Phase 2.
Log
Related Predictions
P004No ground forces on Iranian soil 14 daysCONFIRMEDP008Missile rate below 20/day by 10 MarREFUTEDP016Missile rate below 15/day by 20 MarPARTIALP019US KIA below 25 by 25 MarCONFIRMEDP025USS Boxer NOT arrive before combat ops ceaseCONFIRMEDP029US/coalition Kharg Island operation by 5 AprEXPIREDP030Iran fires another IRBM (1,500+ km) within 7 daysCONFIRMEDP032Houthis conduct NO kinetic military action for entire duration of conflictREFUTED