P0642026-04-25ACTIVEevent

Mojtaba Khamenei does not make verifiable public appearance by May 25

Confidence: 0.80Lens: politicalTimeframe: 2026-05-25

Reasoning

64 days unseen as of May 3. CNN ('That might be helping the regime to survive') and TIME ('Iran's Supreme Leader No Longer Reigns Supreme') both reframed the absence as structural fact. State media had additional opportunity (the May 1 proposal moment) to surface him and chose not to. Foreign Affairs Apr 22: IRGC military council controls access; intercepts government reports before reaching Mojtaba. The absence is the visible signature of the Iranian factional split that R005/R010 named structurally. Committed at S016 with confidence raised from 0.75 to 0.80.

Log

2026-04-25Created in SESSION 015SESSION 015

6 May 2026Referenced as new prediction in SESSION 016SESSION 016

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