China spends an additional rung beyond the May 2 blocking statute (rare-earth export controls, AFSL designation of named US officials, or CIPS-yuan settlement expansion onto Iran trade) by Jun 15
Reasoning
Replaces retired P067 (China imposes additional retaliatory measures by Jun 1) with cleaner conditioning and a longer window. The S016 reframe identifies the May 2 blocking statute as China's minimum-viable-rung pre-summit move - structural counter-power calibrated to preserve meeting optionality. If P068 confirms (summit takes place), additional Chinese rungs are less likely - calibrated restraint logic continues to apply post-meeting. If P068 refutes (summit doesn't take place), the calibrated restraint loses its reason and China spends the next rung in sequence. P072 is committed standalone rather than as P068-conditional because the schema activates children on parent confirmation; the inverse conditioning is captured in reasoning. Higher rungs all available: rare-earth controls (China processes ~85% of global supply), AFSL designations (used symbolically against Pompeo), CIPS-yuan settlement (growing infrastructure, not yet fully operationalised against Iran-trade specifically). May 5 update: confidence raised from 0.55 to 0.60 after the May 4 direct US-Iran exchange of fire weakened P068 (summit) and shifted the inverse-conditioning weight toward P072 firing.