Trump-Xi summit publicly takes place by May 31
Prediction Chain
Reasoning
The S016 'Calibrated to a Meeting' finding identified the Trump-Xi meeting as the gating event for the war's 30-60 day shape: every visible US and Chinese move in the May 1-3 cluster read as positioning for the meeting. The May 4 direct exchange of fire (Project Freedom + Iranian response) broke the calibrated restraint architecture on Iran's side and put acute pressure on the meeting's scheduling calculus from Beijing's vantage. Confidence dropped from 0.55 to 0.40 at the May 5 reframe round: holding a summit during active US-Iran kinetic exchange is politically expensive for both principals and gives Beijing additional leverage by waiting. The simplest Chinese move post-May 4 is to delay without cancelling - which fails this prediction's positive arm. P068 originally drafted disjunctively (summit OR slip-citing-Iran) at the S016 draft round; the unification reframe simplified to yes/no on the summit event with the negative-branch tested separately by P072.