If Trump-Xi summit takes place, Treasury issues no new OFAC designations against Chinese entities for 14 days post-summit conclusion

Prediction Chain

Reasoning

Tests whether the Trump-Xi meeting produces a frame that pauses the cascade. The Apr 29 Treasury bank-warning to the wider Shandong cluster represents pre-summit cascade extension by signal; if the meeting produces a frame for de-escalation, Treasury would hold designations rather than convert warnings to actions. If the cascade continues at the same cadence post-summit, that signals the meeting did not produce a pause-frame and frozen extension wins on inertia rather than negotiation. Confidence held at 0.55 given uncertainty about what frame the meeting can actually produce.

Log

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