Iran's kinetic activity stays inside the May 4 envelope through May 25 - no strike on Bahrain, Saudi, Qatar, or Kuwait territory; no strike on US military bases; no Western/Indian/American-flagged vessel hit producing Western or American casualties
Prediction Chain
Reasoning
Root of the Envelope-Maintenance Chain (Chain A). The May 4 IRGC kinetic events were carefully calibrated: Fujairah Oil Zone not Fujairah air base; commercial not military targets; three Indian nationals wounded but no Western or American casualties; cruise missiles at Navy ships not Navy bases. The envelope reflects Iran's institutional position (R005 post-IRGC category error) more than tactical choice - structural depth doesn't support wider war. 67-day reactive pattern is durable evidence; patron-pre-summit-discipline holds at the proxy layer (P049 confirmation). Against: storage saturation continues, each surviving escort transit raises the cost of not-expanding, IRGC having broken withholding once may have lower threshold next time, Israeli sabotage pattern (8/8) creates unintended trigger pathways.