Trump maintains 'hostilities have terminated' framing through May 31 (CONDITIONAL FLIPPED May 4: significant IRGC kinetic against US forces now occurred via cruise missiles on US Navy escorts and US-sunk Iranian boats; prediction now tests rhetorical durability of the framing despite the kinetic event)
Reasoning
The legal fiction is doing structural work - Trump uses it to evade the War Powers Resolution; Senate Republicans ratified it 6/6; Congress left town. Walking it back voluntarily costs the constitutional cover. Blockade and sanctions cascade can run under the fiction indefinitely. Trump TACO pattern (4/4) supports holding the rhetorical line that maximises decisional optionality. The S016 reframe adds: the framing also preserves summit-window optionality - a war that has terminated can be paused at the table without admitting reversal. The framing's accuracy is not what the prediction tests; the prediction tests whether Trump holds the posture given its structural utility on both the constitutional and summit fronts. Committed at S016 with confidence raised from 0.75 to 0.80 given summit-positioning value.